A record soybean crop may be projected nationwide, but Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) leaders don’t expect a bumper harvest due to adverse weather.
Iowa farmers will harvest an estimated 512 million bushels, up 10 million from August estimates, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Production Report released today. The average yield is estimated at 51 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month.
“In my part of Iowa the crop looks good but I am not certain it will be one of the best we have raised,” said Tom Oswald, ISA president, who farms near Cleghorn.
“I expect our crop to be above average but feel the overall wet, cloudy and cool conditions have taken the top end off of our yield potential.”
Until combines start rolling, ISA CEO Kirk Leeds said projecting yields is difficult.
“I suspect soybean yields are going to be even more variable this year depending on late season stress brought about by wet conditions,” Leeds said.
Nationally, record soybean production is on tap, the report said. The harvest is projected at 3.91 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the August forecast. If realized, the crop will exceed the largest in a decade by more than 500 million bushels.
Soybean yields nationwide are projected at 46.6 bushels per acre. While a new high, the primary reason for bin-busting production across the country is a substantial increase in harvested acres at 84.4 million, up 11 percent from last year. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels, which would be the highest since 2006/07.
Soybean prices have tumbled in recent months due to anticipation of a monster crop. Grant Kimberley, ISA market development director, said that will create buying opportunities which may strengthen prices.
China and other countries purchased more than 800,000 tons of U.S. soybeans this week, government data shows.
“We have seen strong global demand recently,” Kimberley said. “Given the U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange conference is taking place next week in Milwaukee, we anticipate demand will continue to gain momentum.”
Several soybean purchasing contracts are expected to be signed between Chinese buyers and U.S. exporters for the next marketing year at a signing ceremony during the conference, according to industry officials. That coincides with comments ISA officials heard from Chinese buyers during a trade mission in July predicting the nation would import 75 million metric tons, which is 1 million more than the latest USDA estimate.
“These recent projected commitments are probably a result of how these prices are stimulating additional demand that hasn’t been accounted for,” said Kimberley.
Soybean export projections were raised 25 million bushels to 1.7 billion for the upcoming marketing year due to increased supplies, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released today. The domestic soybean crush was raised 15 million bushels to a record 1.77 billion, mostly on increased soybean meal exports.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $9 to $11 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range, according to the WASDE report.
To learn more about ISA, go to www.iasoybeans.com.